After registering drastic drops in maritime traffic of up to 97% following the start of the war in the Middle East, movement in the Strait of Hormuz began to cautiously resume after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that will allow for the "safe passage" through the waterway. "The first signs of maritime activity in the Strait of Hormuz are being observed following the ceasefire announcement, which includes the temporary reopening of this strategic maritime route to facilitate negotiations," said the maritime monitoring platform MarineTraffic in a statement published this Wednesday. According to the company's data, "hundreds of vessels" are in the waters of the Persian Gulf, including 428 oil tankers, 36 for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and another 19 for liquefied natural gas (LNG), many of which were "practically stranded" during the interruption in Hormuz that began on February 28. First Movements MarineTraffic points out that "the first movements are already being registered" after the Greek-owned bulk carrier NJ Earth crossed Hormuz at 8.44 GMT this Wednesday; while the Liberian-flagged Daytona Beach did the same at 6.59 GMT after departing from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas an hour and a half earlier. This occurs after the Iranian government stated that "safe passage" through the waterway will be possible during the two-week ceasefire reached with the United States and announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, during which both parties will negotiate an agreement in talks that will begin this Friday in Islamabad. The reopening of Hormuz has been a demand from the international community and, especially, from Trump, who has repeatedly threatened Iran with attacking and "razing" its power plants if it did not reopen the strait. Consequently, crude oil prices have skyrocketed, threatening a global energy crisis. Furthermore, according to the UK's Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO), from the start of the war on February 28 until yesterday, April 7, 17 attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman have been recorded, as well as 11 "suspicious activities." A Gradual Return? The disruptions were enormous: if between 120-140 vessels passed through daily before the war, the month of March registered only between 4 and 6 vessels, according to the Port Watch platform of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the University of Oxford. "It is highly unlikely that a similar level will be reached in the next two weeks, considering the delay in verification processes, insurance limitations, and the reluctance of operators," maritime trade expert Daejin Lee stated this Wednesday on his LinkedIn. These two weeks of ceasefire, according to the Hormuz specialist, create "a significant opportunity" for volumes to increase, although he warned that the magnitude of the delay is "considerable" with more than 1,000 ocean-going vessels, and over 3,000 including regional tonnage, trapped in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, he recalled that security concerns among operators and shipping companies still persist, which could slow down the "initial response." "It is likely that many top-tier shipowners will wait several days—or even more—to confirm that the ceasefire holds before committing vessels and crews. This is rational risk management, not excessive precaution," he concluded.
