As a result, crude oil prices have skyrocketed, threatening a global energy crisis. Additionally, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency, from the start of the war on February 28 until yesterday, April 7, 17 attacks on vessels have been recorded in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman, as well as 11 'suspicious activities'. A gradual return? The disruptions were enormous: before the war, between 120-140 vessels were transiting daily, but March registered only between 4 and 6 vessels, according to the Port Watch platform of the IMF and the University of Oxford. 'It is highly unlikely that a similar level will be reached in the next two weeks, considering the delays in verification processes, insurance limitations, and the reluctance of operators,' said maritime trade expert Daejin Lee on his LinkedIn this Wednesday. These two weeks of ceasefire, according to the analyst specializing in Hormuz, create 'a significant opportunity' for volumes to increase, although he warned that the magnitude of the delay is 'considerable' with over 1,000 ocean-going vessels, and more than 3,000 including regional tonnage, trapped in the Persian Gulf. Furthermore, he recalled that security concerns among operators and shipping companies still persist, which could slow down 'the initial response'. 'It is likely that many top shipowners will wait several days — or even more — to confirm that the ceasefire holds before committing vessels and crews.' After registering drastic drops in vessel traffic of up to 97% following the start of the war in the Middle East, movement in the Strait of Hormuz began to cautiously resume after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that will allow for 'safe passage' through the route. 'The first signs of maritime activity are being observed in the Strait of Hormuz following the ceasefire announcement, which includes the temporary reopening of this strategic maritime route to facilitate negotiations,' said the maritime monitoring platform MarineTraffic in a statement published this Wednesday. According to the company's data, 'hundreds of vessels' are in the waters of the Persian Gulf, including 426 oil tankers, 36 for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and another 19 for liquefied natural gas (LNG), many of which were 'practically stranded' during the interruption in Hormuz that began on February 28. First movements MarineTraffic points out that 'the first movements are already being registered' after the Greek-owned bulker NJ Earth crossed Hormuz at 8.44 GMT this Wednesday; while the Liberian-flagged Daytona Beach did the same at 6.59 GMT after departing from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas an hour and a half earlier. This occurs after the Iranian government stated that 'safe passage' will be possible through the route during the two-week ceasefire reached with the United States and announced by US President Donald Trump, during which both parties will negotiate an agreement in talks starting this Friday in Islamabad. The reopening of Hormuz has been a demand of the international community, and especially of Trump, who has repeatedly threatened Iran to attack and 'devastate' its power plants if it did not reopen the strait. He even asserted that the entire country could be 'annihilated in a single night' and returned to 'the Stone Age.' According to the Hormuz Strait Monitor platform, a total of 10 vessels have passed through this strategic route in the last 24 hours, while 7 are doing so at this moment. Critical impact Before the start of the war, between 20% and 25% of the total volume of maritime oil trade transited through Hormuz, that is, more than 20 million barrels of crude oil and derivatives per day, according to data from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 20% of the world's LNG, 29% of LPG, and 13% of chemicals were also traded through Hormuz, while a third of global maritime trade in fertilizers passed through the strait. This has had devastating repercussions, as more than 80% of the crude oil and LNG passing through the strait is destined for Asian markets, while Europe depends 35% on the products transiting through Hormuz. 'This is rational risk management, not excessive precaution,' the expert concluded.
