Political analyst Claudio Fantini warned that the death of Ali Khamenei and the establishment of a transitional triumvirate in Iran have opened a scenario of global uncertainty with a direct impact on energy markets, amid a conflict unfolding in the Persian Gulf, a strategic hub for global crude oil supply. Fantini stated that the first effect of the crisis will be seen in the markets. «First of all, through the markets. We are now facing an absolutely unprecedented situation, the result of an external attack,» he noted. According to his description, power has been provisionally handed over to a triumvirate composed of President Masoud Pezeshkian, the head of the Judiciary, and the head of the Guardian Council. «It is a triumvirate that will lead the transition to what is supposed to be the return of the ayatollah regime, that is, the election of a single religious figure. But for Israel, it is not the same if a Shi'ite theocracy that has historically proclaimed the non-existence of the State of Israel continues,» he explained. Regarding the nuclear risk, he downplayed the possibility of immediate use of atomic weapons. «If they do not win this war from the air and from the sea, the situation could become much more complicated. That is why Putin did not use it in Ukraine,» he stated, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Regarding the economic impact on China, he believed the effect would be mainly on prices. «China will not be left without oil, but it will probably stop buying it at bargain prices and will have to pay at market values,» he affirmed. Finally, he contextualized the crisis in the long-standing tension between modernization and authoritarianism in the region. «The region has a history where political power, oil, and religion are intertwined. 'The one who drops the atomic bomb loses before humanity.' The succession of 1989 was orderly and natural, due to the death of Khamenei. He knows he is condemned. Iran is territorially very large, with 90 million inhabitants.»
