According to traders involved in transit, Iran has not yet allowed a single vessel loaded with liquefied natural gas to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for weeks of war, a prohibition that risks worsening the global shortage. Two tankers loaded with Qatari liquefied natural gas appeared to be leaving the Persian Gulf on Monday, but turned back a few hours later. Traffic through the strait has decreased drastically since then, but oil tankers and other vessels have continued to transit the narrow maritime passage, usually with Iranian permission, while one-fifth of the global supply of liquefied natural gas remains disrupted. Instead, loaded vessels are currently scattered across the gulf, either because they are not participating in negotiations with Iran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz or because they have not received authorization, according to sources. In recent days, even vessels with ties to Japan and France have managed to pass, although the details of those transits are unknown. However, no methane tankers, including Qatar, have yet passed through the strait. President Donald Trump has insisted that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz be part of any agreement to end the war with Iran. However, operators and vessel tracking data indicate that only one methane tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz in early this month, without cargo. Qatar has been forced to shut down its giant export plant in Ras Laffan following last month's Iranian attacks. Even so, resuming traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would be a boost, as free passage would allow the country to send already filled cargoes. This has led consumers to seek alternative fuels: Japan and Bangladesh are among the nations that are again relying more on the more polluting coal, while Taiwan has invested hundreds of millions of dollars to secure LNG cargoes on the spot market. World exports of liquefied natural gas fell to a six-month low in March, while imports to Asia recorded the largest decline since 2022. Countries like Pakistan, Thailand, and India have reached agreements with Iran to ensure access to the stranded tankers. They could also unload stored fuel and even begin planning the partial restart of their export plant. Without that gas, the conflict in the Middle East has transformed a market with an impending oversupply into one contemplating a shortage. Vessel tracking data shows that more than a dozen loaded methane tankers remain inactive in the area. It is possible that some vessels avoided detection by turning off their transponders or that signal interference prevented accurate tracking. According to traders, who requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media, Iranian authorities denied them permission to leave. This drastic change underscores the apparent ban in place since the United States and Israel began attacks on Iran at the end of February. On Monday, he declared that reopening the strait was “a very high priority”.
