If Iran is ultimately unable to participate, the definition of its replacement will depend on the timing and criteria adopted by world football authorities. Amidst the military escalation following cross-border bombings between Iran, Israel, and the United States, and in a context of maximum international diplomatic tension, the possibility has begun to emerge that the Iranian national football team may not participate in the 2026 World Cup. Although there is no official confirmation, the current geopolitical scenario raises an immediate regulatory question: who would take its place in case of exclusion? According to the regulations of the Asian Football Confederation (AFC), if a qualified team withdraws, its place is not left vacant but must be reassigned to the best Asian team in the ranking that did not achieve direct qualification. If Iran's potential exclusion is confirmed before this process is finalized, the AFC could grant the spot directly by ranking, but if the decision comes later, the scenario becomes more complex. In that case, FIFA could opt for a sporting solution rather than an administrative one. An alternative would be for the vacant spot to be decided among the teams from the intercontinental playoff, even by organizing an additional match between the losers of that stage to determine the replacement. For now, everything remains in the realm of speculation, but the conflict in the Middle East is already transcending politics and threatens to impact the global football calendar. Under that criterion, the main candidate would be the Iraqi national team, provided it tops the list of non-qualified teams. However, the situation is not that simple. Iraq is in the intercontinental playoff for the World Cup, which introduces a key variable into the decision-making process.
