Israel and the US have pushed back the threat of Iran possessing a nuclear weapon in the near future, but they have not seized the precious stockpile of highly enriched uranium, a key element in any future negotiations between Washington and Tehran.US President Donald Trump launched the war on February 28 last year, while continuing to claim that Iran is seeking to develop a nuclear bomb, which Tehran denies, and repeatedly vowing not to allow it to possess a nuclear weapon.In turn, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserts that the Iranian nuclear program was 'destroyed' after the Twelve-Day War in June 2025, and the intense campaign of US and Israeli airstrikes in recent weeks.Nevertheless, two European diplomatic sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, express caution about the future of the Iranian nuclear program.One of them recalls, saying: 'Immediately after the June strikes, we were told that the program would be set back for several years, before the delay being talked about was reduced to just a few months.'An Israeli diplomatic source stated: 'Iran is no longer a force on the cusp of acquiring the ability to manufacture a nuclear weapon as it was before.'In addition to the severely damaged infrastructure, 'Iranian expertise was completely wiped out with the elimination of scientists and officials who were supposed to replace those killed last June,' and universities were targeted, 'where the data centers housing Iranian expertise were located,' according to the source.The Iranian nuclear program has suffered a 'serious setback,' and 'it will take a lot of time, investment, and resources to rebuild all these lost capabilities,' stated Spencer Faragasso of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a US research center that monitors the Iranian nuclear program.Yet, he warned that 'the gains from the conflict are far from permanent.'Tehran still holds a large quantity of uranium enriched to 60%, a percentage close to the 90% threshold needed to produce a nuclear bomb, in addition to its stockpile of uranium enriched to 20%, a critical percentage that allows for a rapid transition to 60% enrichment, then to 90%.Before the US strikes in June last year, Iran possessed, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), about 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, far exceeding the maximum limit of 3.67% set by the 2015 agreement, from which the US later withdrew.Since June 2025, the fate of this stockpile remains unclear, as Tehran refuses to allow IAEA inspectors access to the sites destroyed by US and Israeli strikes.IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has repeatedly called for the return of international experts.But obtaining enriched uranium 'is the hardest thing to achieve,' he said.Washington sought to suspend Iran's uranium enrichment program for twenty years as part of a deal to end the program, according to US media on Monday.So far, all rounds of talks held since the US withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal in 2018 have ended in failure.And, according to one Western diplomatic source, the option of reducing this stockpile, and thus lowering its enrichment level, is currently ruled out.But how can that be achieved?Russia reiterated on Monday its readiness to host Iranian enriched uranium on its territory as part of a possible peace deal between Washington and Tehran.A Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, stated that 'this proposal was made by President Vladimir Putin during his communications with the US and regional countries.'These doubts can only be dispelled through independent inspection.The current goal of the Americans and Israelis is to remove the highly enriched uranium stockpile from Iranian territory. But this scenario is a red line for the Europeans, especially as Russia has been at war with Ukraine for over four years.Russia and Iran cooperate on nuclear matters through the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, which was built and operated with Russian assistance for civilian nuclear purposes.Professor Danny Orbach of the Hebrew University in Jerusalem comments: 'The Iranians cannot produce a nuclear weapon at the present time.'Countries like France and Britain, which support negotiations aimed at establishing a long-term framework for the Iranian uranium program, believe that the return of inspectors is a prerequisite for any discussion.Removal of the Enriched UraniumIt is believed that part of the highly enriched uranium stockpile is still buried in tunnels at a site in Isfahan in central Iran. Western diplomatic sources have not ruled out the possibility of some quantities being moved.Spencer Faragaso explains: 'It is believed that at least 220 kilograms, or about half of Iran's declared stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%, is stored in the underground tunnel complex in Isfahan.' He added: 'The fate of the other half is unclear, but we believe it is buried under the rubble at Fordo, where large quantities of uranium enriched to 60% were produced before the June war.'
